2026 Supply Chain Outlook by Jeff Kanterman, SVP of Transportation Management

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Moderate Growth, Strategic Shifts, and the Rise of Operational AI

The logistics and supply chain industry is entering 2026 amid moderate growth, ongoing structural shifts, and accelerating technological maturity. While the year ahead is unlikely to bring significant volatility, the market is evolving in ways that require thoughtful preparation. Below are my predictions for the new year.

Moderate Shipment Volume Growth

Compared to 2025, expect 2026 to exhibit moderate volume growth, with little volatility and a low probability of shipment volume acceleration. However, carriers will continue to exit the market, driving out capacity and increasing the risk of larger cost increases when the market turns. Expect a steady, but moderate increase in freight costs, both contractual and spot freight, throughout 2026.

Regionalization Gains Momentum 

Organizations will continue to place a key focus on supplier diversification, particularly suppliers that are closer to home and the end consumer. Being able to access inventory with shorter lead times and with reduced geopolitical risk will be key to supply chain resilience. More than ever, our transportation management team is assisting with network design, center of gravity studies, and transportation-based supplier cost analyses, which will be a key area of support into the new year.

Capacity Conditions Shift, But Unevenly

Inventory levels are expected to remain generally balanced in 2026; however, high carrying costs and uneven stock distribution across sectors will continue to pressure warehouse and transportation networks. Meanwhile, warehouse vacancy may rise early in the year, though much of that space will be operationally limited due to the growing need for modern warehouse functions.

Ongoing exits among small and mid-sized carriers will quietly reduce transportation capacity and shrink the market’s buffer. Shippers can expect brief, localized spot market spikes tied to restocking cycles or regional replenishment, but widespread volatility remains unlikely. Carrier exits and shifting regional demand will increase the need for flexible, multimodal, data-driven networks. Evaluating new ways to plan upstream in supply chains while expanding carrier networks to support these changes will create a more resilient network.

Harnessing AI

The push to leverage AI for cost reduction and greater operational efficiency will be more critical than ever. We can expect many AI betas and proofs of concept to mature into real, scalable solutions. In contrast, others will inevitably be stalled or shelved as organizations redirect resources toward higher-priority opportunities. The ability to dynamically identify and implement continuous improvement opportunities will take center stage as organizations look for quicker ways to drive efficiencies and generate savings. 

At NFI, we continually refine our use of AI in transportation planning and modeling, and through continuous improvement, driving immediate value and ROI for our customers and accelerating the constant development of our digital twin to support our customers using dynamic, action-oriented continuous improvement across all areas of their supply chains.

In conclusion, here are three things shippers can do to prepare for 2026:

1. Select two or three high-impact areas of your business where AI, especially agentic AI, can streamline workflows, eliminate bottlenecks, and meaningfully lower operating expenses. Focus on use cases where autonomous systems can take on routine, repetitive, or coordination-heavy tasks, allowing your teams to concentrate on higher-value work. From there, engage an internal champion or an external partner, like NFI, who can help assess opportunities, quantify the ROI, and support deployment to ensure the solutions are implemented effectively and deliver measurable results.
2. Work towards centralizing and cleansing supply chain data to ensure your organization can offer reliable information that can be analyzed and acted upon. Standardize formats and units of measure to ensure consistency.
3. Maintain strong and diverse carrier partnerships to ensure your network has sufficient capacity as the market continues to experience an influx of new customers. Leverage your 3PL and 4PL partners to assist you with this process, ensuring your organization is a shipper of choice. 

Jeff Kanterman, SVP of Transportation Management, joined NFI in 2014. Jeff and his team combine people, processes, and technology to help businesses enhance their supply chain networks.